Research-Present and future climate change


Projection for climate change over the Tibetan Plateau in the 21st century


    Based on the ensemble average of outputs under the mid-range emission (A1B) scenario from 20 climate models used by the IPCC AR4, and dynamically downscaling results driven by the modeling outputs from a global climate model, climate change over the Tibetan Plateau in the next 30-50 years has been studied. The results show that annual mean surface air temperature would rise by 1.4-2.2≧ averaged for 2030-2049 in most areas of the Plateau with respect to that for 1980-1999. Climatic warming is more prominent in higher elevation regions and in colder seasons. For example, seasonal temperature would increase by 2.4≧ or more in the Xizang Autonomous Region in winter. The change in precipitation would be relatively small and generally below 5%, although precipitation is likely to increase in the main part of the Plateau and in most seasons. Considering various uncertainties in future emissions of atmospheric greenhouse gases, skills of multi-model ensemble projections and regional-scale modeling,  reexaminations and corrections will be needed when the above projections can be turned into practical applications.

Liu Xiaodong, et al., 2009: The A1B Scenario Projection for Climate Change over the Tibetan Plateau in the Next 30-50 Years, Plateau Meteorology, 28(3), 475-484. (in Chinese)

Downscaled changes of air temperature (≧) and precipitation rate (mm/day) over the Tibetan Plateau in next 30-50 years. (a) annual mean temperature, (b) winter mean temperature, (c) summer mean temperature, (d) annual mean precipitation rate, (e) winter mean precipitation rate and (f) summer mean precipitation rate